Nature
Rising Temperatures Pose Unprecedented Threat to Rhino Populations
A recent study reveals that Southern Africa’s rhinoceros populations face severe threats from climate change, with rising temperatures rendering their habitats increasingly unsuitable. Urgent adaptation strategies are needed to preserve the future of these iconic species.
By Richard Cole · January 18, 2024
Southern Africa's Rhinoceroses
Southern Africa is home to 80% of the world's black rhinoceroses and 92% of white rhinoceroses. While traditional conservation efforts have centered on protecting these iconic species from poaching, a recent study conducted by researchers from the University of Massachusetts Amherst has shed light on the detrimental impact of climate change on the region's rhinoceros populations. Lucas Alexander/Wikimedia
Impact of Climate Change on Rhinos
Published in the journal Biodiversity, the research conducted by Hlelowenkhosi S. Mamba and Timothy Randhir sheds light on the vulnerability of rhinos to the changing climate. The study focused their research on five large national parks across Southern Africa, including South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania, and eSwatini, which serve as crucial habitats for rhinos. It emphasizes that, despite the conservation community's historic focus on poaching, climate change, specifically rising temperatures, could rapidly surpass the animals' acceptable maximum threshold. Global Environment Facility/Flickr
Changing Climate and Rhino Vulnerability
The African continent has witnessed a temperature rise of 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius over the past century, with an additional two degrees projected in the next century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study highlights the importance of understanding whether temperature or rainfall will have a more significant impact on rhinos, particularly given their unique cooling mechanisms.Rhinos, unable to sweat, rely on bathing and finding shade to regulate their body temperature. Lead author Hlelowenkhosi S. Mamba underscores the broader impact of climate change on biodiversity, urging conservationists to conduct macroecological assessments to prepare for potential losses. GetArchive
Findings of the Study
The researchers projected two climate change scenarios for each park: the IPCC's high-emissions scenario and a more moderate emissions scenario. Their analysis indicated that by 2055, under the moderate emissions scenario, each park is expected to experience approximately 2.2 ºC warming, increasing to 2.5 ºC by 2085. Under the high emissions scenario, the temperature rise is projected to be more severe, with an increase of approximately 2.8 ºC by 2055 and 4.6 ºC by 2085.Furthermore, the study highlighted a concerning trend of increasingly drier conditions in most parks, with only one exception, Tsavo West National Park in Kenya, which is expected to receive more rainfall. Importantly, the researchers noted that the rise in temperature poses a greater threat to rhinos compared to changes in precipitation. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Headquarters/Flickr
Species-Specific Vulnerabilities
The research team found that the changing climate will make the temperature conditions in all study parks increasingly unsuitable for both white and black rhinos. Alarmingly, the probability of occurrence of either species is predicted to shrink to zero by 2085 under the high-emissions scenarios. The study also revealed that white rhinos are anticipated to be affected earlier than black rhinos, emphasizing the urgency of addressing climate change's impact on these vulnerable species. Etosha National Park in Namibia and Hlane National Park in Eswatini are particularly alarming cases, as both are projected to become too warm for rhinos in either emission scenario. flowcomm/Flickr
Implications for Conservation
The implications of these findings are profound. The study underscored the critical need for conservationists and park managers to proactively integrate climate predictions into their management strategies. Park managers are urged to consider measures such as increasing water supplies, enhancing tree cover, monitoring for signs of stress in rhino populations, and planning for rhino migration as part of comprehensive adaptation strategies. Scott Presnell/Flickr